The Refinance Boom
Pushed Refinance Rates Higher
The Processing Capacity Problem: The boom stretched to the limit the
capacity of lenders to process loans. Reluctant to add more employees when the
boom could fizzle out at any time, lenders preferred to lengthen the
processing period and let borrowers queue up for longer periods. But purchasers
often have closing dates they must meet, and lenders strive to give them
priority over refinancers. Pricing refinance a little higher is one way to do
this because it cuts the number of refinancers in the queue.
The Lock Risk Problem: Another factor
was at work as well. It
costs lenders more to lock the interest rate on refinance loans than on purchase
loans. Usually, this is not important enough to cause a difference in
pricing, but that also changed during the refinance boom.
When lenders lock, they assure the applicant
that the rate will hold if market rates increase after the lock. Lenders lose if
market rates are higher when they close, and they gain if market rates are
lower.
If loan applicants who lock always went to
closing, over time, lenders would gain as much from rate declines as they lost
from rate increases. But in practice borrowers do not always close, and the
fall-out as it is called is larger when rates are falling. Some applicants are
"lock-jumpers". They lock, and if rates subsequently decline, they
find another loan provider and lock again at a lower rate. Locking thus imposes
a net cost on lenders.
This cost is larger on refinancings than on
purchases because lock-jumping is more common among refinancers. Borrowers who
are refinancing usually are flexible on when they close. Most purchasers, in
contrast, must close on a specific date and don’t have time to restart the
process with another lender.
The prolonged refinance boom increased
the number of refinancing lock-jumpers. An unusually large number of borrowers
refinanced multiple times within just a few years, learning the ropes in
the process. One thing they learned is how to lock-jump. This widened the
difference in lock cost to lenders between refinancings and purchase loans.
Lenders and brokers were partly to blame for
this because they only rarely put applicants on notice that they are committed
by a lock. They fear that such a warning in itself could send the applicant
running to another loan provider. But the result was to raise the cost to all
those who refinance.
Copyright Jack Guttentag 2007